{"id":1035191,"date":"2025-04-25T20:32:40","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T20:32:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/?p=1035191"},"modified":"2025-05-01T20:54:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T20:54:50","slug":"%f0%9f%8f%a1-metro-vancouver-real-estate-update-week-of-april-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/?p=1035191","title":{"rendered":"\ud83c\udfe1 Metro Vancouver Real Estate Update \u2013 Week of April 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As we move through Q2 2025, new data is painting a clearer (and slightly colder) picture of Canada\u2019s economic and housing outlook. Here\u2019s a quick dive into what\u2019s going on and what it could mean for you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor \ud83e\udde0\ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udcc9&nbsp;<em>Oxford Economics Rings the Recession Bell<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oxford Economics has downgraded Canada\u2019s economic forecast \u2014 and it\u2019s not just a minor dip. They&#8217;re now expecting GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2025 (down from 1.1%), and even forecasting a small contraction in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udd3b Key points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Exports<\/strong>\u00a0are expected to weaken due to rising U.S. tariffs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Households<\/strong>\u00a0may feel the pinch from rising costs, job losses, and tighter budgets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Population growth<\/strong>\u00a0will slow as the federal government reins in immigration \ud83d\udec2.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Job losses<\/strong>\u00a0could reach 200,000 by late 2025, pushing unemployment to 7.7%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Home prices<\/strong>\u00a0could slide 8\u201310% by mid-2026 as listings rise and demand falls \ud83c\udfe1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>BoC interest rates<\/strong>\u00a0may stay at 2.75% through 2027, with mortgage rates staying above 5%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom line? We\u2019re likely in for a slower market \u2014 and buyers may find better opportunities in the next 12\u201318 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udecd\ufe0f&nbsp;<em>Retail Sales Drop Signals Consumer Fatigue<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>February\u2019s retail sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion, with big dips in auto sales (-2.6%) and online shopping (-0.3%). While groceries and liquor stores saw slight gains, spending overall was soft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udd0d Highlights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sales were down in 7 provinces \u2014 Quebec and Nova Scotia had the biggest drops.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumers rushed to buy goods early in March, fearing tariff-related price hikes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But that March bump (+0.7%) might be short-lived.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With financial stress building and job numbers weakening, many economists believe the Bank of Canada could&nbsp;<strong>cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 4<\/strong>&nbsp;\ud83d\udcc9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfe6&nbsp;<em>Uninsured Mortgages Rise \u2014 and So Do Delinquencies<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Non-bank lenders (like credit unions and private lenders) saw mortgage balances rise to $405.3 billion by the end of 2024 \u2014 but growth is slowing, and delinquencies are creeping up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83c\udfe0 What you should know:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Uninsured mortgages<\/strong>\u00a0now make up 68% of the market (up from 60% in 2020).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Delinquent balances<\/strong>\u00a0on these loans jumped 16% year-over-year to $7.8B \ud83d\udea8.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Average late payment<\/strong>\u00a0is on a $260K loan \u2014 a sign that higher rates are hitting harder.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Insured mortgages<\/strong>\u00a0(with CMHC etc.) are faring slightly better, but arrears are still up.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If you&#8217;re considering a new mortgage or renewal, it\u2019s more important than ever to&nbsp;<strong>shop around and weigh the risk<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2014 especially with fixed rates holding above 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6&nbsp;<em>RBC: Growth Stalls, Market Confidence Wobbles<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC is echoing the slowdown sentiment. February GDP is expected to come in flat, after a solid January. Meanwhile, job numbers and manufacturing output are down \u2014 likely tied to trade uncertainty and softening consumer confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udcbc Snapshot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>March home sales<\/strong>\u00a0dropped 7%, with many blaming weather and weak sentiment \ud83c\udfe1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Employment<\/strong>\u00a0fell by 33,000 \u2014 the worst monthly loss in 3 years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Manufacturing sales<\/strong>\u00a0slid nearly 2%, hinting at early tariff impacts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even U.S. growth is cooling, which could spill over into Canadian exports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep an eye on job market trends \u2014 if they continue down, we may see the BoC cut again faster than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfe1&nbsp;<em>CREA Lowers 2025 Home Sales &amp; Price Forecast<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) just slashed its 2025 forecast by 50,000 transactions \u2014 now expecting virtually no change from 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udcc9 Key takeaways:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>National\u00a0<strong>average home price<\/strong>\u00a0now projected at\u00a0<strong>$687,898<\/strong>\u00a0(was $718K) \ud83d\udcb8.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>March sales volume<\/strong>\u00a0was the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis \ud83d\ude2c.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>New listings<\/strong>\u00a0rose 3%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to a buyer-friendly 45.9%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Prices fell 1% MoM<\/strong>\u00a0in March, especially in BC and Ontario.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>NB, Alberta, and Newfoundland<\/strong>\u00a0may still see gains \u2014 while BC and Ontario might dip further.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With the BoC&nbsp;<strong>pausing rate cuts in April<\/strong>, the next few months will depend on global trade tensions, inflation trends, and buyer confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udd0d Final Thoughts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right now, we\u2019re seeing a&nbsp;<strong>cooling market<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2014 but not a collapse. If you&#8217;re a&nbsp;<strong>buyer<\/strong>, you might find better deals later this year. If you&#8217;re a&nbsp;<strong>seller<\/strong>, pricing strategically and working with the right agent is more important than ever. And if you&#8217;re&nbsp;<strong>renewing your mortgage<\/strong>, keep an eye on upcoming BoC moves \u2014 they\u2019ll directly impact your options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Want help navigating the shift? Reach out anytime \u2014 I\u2019d be happy to walk you through your options based on your specific situation \ud83e\udd1d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udcde\u00a0<strong>604-968-9886<\/strong><br>\ud83d\udce7\u00a0<strong>Hansol.estates@gmail.com<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we move through Q2 2025, new data is painting a clearer (and slightly colder) picture of Canada\u2019s economic and housing outlook. Here\u2019s a quick dive into what\u2019s going on and what it could mean for you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor \ud83e\udde0\ud83d\udc47 \ud83d\udcc9&nbsp;Oxford Economics Rings the Recession Bell Oxford Economics has downgraded Canada\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1035199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1035191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1035191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1035191"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1035191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1035192,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1035191\/revisions\/1035192"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1035199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1035191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1035191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hansollee.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1035191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}