Weekly Blog
As we move through Q2 2025, new data is painting a clearer (and slightly colder) picture of Canada’s economic and housing outlook. Here’s a quick dive into what’s going on and what it could mean for you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor 🧠👇
📉 Oxford Economics Rings the Recession Bell
Oxford Economics has downgraded Canada’s economic forecast — and it’s not just a minor dip. They’re now expecting GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2025 (down from 1.1%), and even forecasting a small contraction in 2026.
🔻 Key points:
- Exports are expected to weaken due to rising U.S. tariffs.
- Households may feel the pinch from rising costs, job losses, and tighter budgets.
- Population growth will slow as the federal government reins in immigration 🛂.
- Job losses could reach 200,000 by late 2025, pushing unemployment to 7.7%.
- Home prices could slide 8–10% by mid-2026 as listings rise and demand falls 🏡.
- BoC interest rates may stay at 2.75% through 2027, with mortgage rates staying above 5%.
Bottom line? We’re likely in for a slower market — and buyers may find better opportunities in the next 12–18 months.
🛍️ Retail Sales Drop Signals Consumer Fatigue
February’s retail sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion, with big dips in auto sales (-2.6%) and online shopping (-0.3%). While groceries and liquor stores saw slight gains, spending overall was soft.
🔍 Highlights:
- Sales were down in 7 provinces — Quebec and Nova Scotia had the biggest drops.
- Consumers rushed to buy goods early in March, fearing tariff-related price hikes.
- But that March bump (+0.7%) might be short-lived.
With financial stress building and job numbers weakening, many economists believe the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 4 📉.
🏦 Uninsured Mortgages Rise — and So Do Delinquencies
Non-bank lenders (like credit unions and private lenders) saw mortgage balances rise to $405.3 billion by the end of 2024 — but growth is slowing, and delinquencies are creeping up.
🏠 What you should know:
- Uninsured mortgages now make up 68% of the market (up from 60% in 2020).
- Delinquent balances on these loans jumped 16% year-over-year to $7.8B 🚨.
- Average late payment is on a $260K loan — a sign that higher rates are hitting harder.
- Insured mortgages (with CMHC etc.) are faring slightly better, but arrears are still up.
If you’re considering a new mortgage or renewal, it’s more important than ever to shop around and weigh the risk — especially with fixed rates holding above 5%.
🇨🇦 RBC: Growth Stalls, Market Confidence Wobbles
RBC is echoing the slowdown sentiment. February GDP is expected to come in flat, after a solid January. Meanwhile, job numbers and manufacturing output are down — likely tied to trade uncertainty and softening consumer confidence.
💼 Snapshot:
- March home sales dropped 7%, with many blaming weather and weak sentiment 🏡.
- Employment fell by 33,000 — the worst monthly loss in 3 years.
- Manufacturing sales slid nearly 2%, hinting at early tariff impacts.
- Even U.S. growth is cooling, which could spill over into Canadian exports.
Keep an eye on job market trends — if they continue down, we may see the BoC cut again faster than expected.
🏡 CREA Lowers 2025 Home Sales & Price Forecast
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) just slashed its 2025 forecast by 50,000 transactions — now expecting virtually no change from 2024.
📉 Key takeaways:
- National average home price now projected at $687,898 (was $718K) 💸.
- March sales volume was the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis 😬.
- New listings rose 3%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to a buyer-friendly 45.9%.
- Prices fell 1% MoM in March, especially in BC and Ontario.
- NB, Alberta, and Newfoundland may still see gains — while BC and Ontario might dip further.
With the BoC pausing rate cuts in April, the next few months will depend on global trade tensions, inflation trends, and buyer confidence.
🔍 Final Thoughts
Right now, we’re seeing a cooling market — but not a collapse. If you’re a buyer, you might find better deals later this year. If you’re a seller, pricing strategically and working with the right agent is more important than ever. And if you’re renewing your mortgage, keep an eye on upcoming BoC moves — they’ll directly impact your options.
Want help navigating the shift? Reach out anytime — I’d be happy to walk you through your options based on your specific situation 🤝
📞 604-968-9886
📧 Hansol.estates@gmail.com