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As we move through Q2 2025, new data is painting a clearer (and slightly colder) picture of Canada’s economic and housing outlook. Here’s a quick dive into what’s going on and what it could mean for you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor 🧠👇

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📉 Oxford Economics Rings the Recession Bell

Oxford Economics has downgraded Canada’s economic forecast — and it’s not just a minor dip. They’re now expecting GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2025 (down from 1.1%), and even forecasting a small contraction in 2026.

🔻 Key points:

• Exports are expected to weaken due to rising U.S. tariffs.
• Households may feel the pinch from rising costs, job losses, and tighter budgets.
• Population growth will slow as the federal government reins in immigration 🛂.
• Job losses could reach 200,000 by late 2025, pushing unemployment to 7.7%.
• Home prices could slide 8–10% by mid-2026 as listings rise and demand falls 🏡.
• BoC interest rates may stay at 2.75% through 2027, with mortgage rates staying above 5%.

Bottom line? We’re likely in for a slower market — and buyers may find better opportunities in the next 12–18 months.

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🛍️ Retail Sales Drop Signals Consumer Fatigue

February’s retail sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion, with big dips in auto sales (-2.6%) and online shopping (-0.3%). While groceries and liquor stores saw slight gains, spending overall was soft.

🔍 Highlights:

• Sales were down in 7 provinces — Quebec and Nova Scotia had the biggest drops.
• Consumers rushed to buy goods early in March, fearing tariff-related price hikes.
• But that March bump (+0.7%) might be short-lived.

With financial stress building and job numbers weakening, many economists believe the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 4 📉.

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🏦 Uninsured Mortgages Rise — and So Do Delinquencies

Non-bank lenders (like credit unions and private lenders) saw mortgage balances rise to $405.3 billion by the end of 2024 — but growth is slowing, and delinquencies are creeping up.

🏠 What you should know:

• Uninsured mortgages now make up 68% of the market (up from 60% in 2020).
• Delinquent balances on these loans jumped 16% year-over-year to $7.8B 🚨.
• Average late payment is on a $260K loan — a sign that higher rates are hitting harder.
• Insured mortgages (with CMHC etc.) are faring slightly better, but arrears are still up.

If you’re considering a new mortgage or renewal, it’s more important than ever to shop around and weigh the risk — especially with fixed rates holding above 5%.

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🇨🇦 RBC: Growth Stalls, Market Confidence Wobbles

RBC is echoing the slowdown sentiment. February GDP is expected to come in flat, after a solid January. Meanwhile, job numbers and manufacturing output are down — likely tied to trade uncertainty and softening consumer confidence.

💼 Snapshot:

• March home sales dropped 7%, with many blaming weather and weak sentiment 🏡.
• Employment fell by 33,000 — the worst monthly loss in 3 years.
• Manufacturing sales slid nearly 2%, hinting at early tariff impacts.
• Even U.S. growth is cooling, which could spill over into Canadian exports.

Keep an eye on job market trends — if they continue down, we may see the BoC cut again faster than expected.

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🏡 CREA Lowers 2025 Home Sales & Price Forecast

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) just slashed its 2025 forecast by 50,000 transactions — now expecting virtually no change from 2024.

📉 Key takeaways:

• National average home price now projected at $687,898 (was $718K) 💸.
• March sales volume was the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis 😬.
• New listings rose 3%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to a buyer-friendly 45.9%.
• Prices fell 1% MoM in March, especially in BC and Ontario.
• NB, Alberta, and Newfoundland may still see gains — while BC and Ontario might dip further.

With the BoC pausing rate cuts in April, the next few months will depend on global trade tensions, inflation trends, and buyer confidence.

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🔍 Final Thoughts

Right now, we’re seeing a cooling market — but not a collapse. If you’re a buyer, you might find better deals later this year. If you’re a seller, pricing strategically and working with the right agent is more important than ever. And if you’re renewing your mortgage, keep an eye on upcoming BoC moves — they’ll directly impact your options.

Want help navigating the shift? Reach out anytime — I’d be happy to walk you through your options based on your specific situation 🤝

📞 604-968-9886
📧 Hansol.estates@gmail.com

Tariffs, Turbulence, and a Tipping Market

Hey everyone 👋

This week’s housing update is packed with headlines that sound more like an economics class than a real estate newsletter — but if you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, here’s what actually matters.

Let’s break it down:

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📉 Sales Take a Hit (Again)
March home sales fell again — down 4.8% from February, and a full 9.3% lower than last year. That puts us at the lowest level for March since 2009.

If you’re feeling like buyers are quiet right now, you’re not imagining it. A lot of people are hitting pause due to… guess what? Tariff fears and economic uncertainty.

CREA has even slashed its 2025 sales forecast — they were calling for a rebound, now they’re just hoping we stay flat.

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🏡 Listings Are Up, Prices Are Down
We’re seeing more listings coming to market (up 3% month-over-month), and total inventory is now 18.3% higherthan this time last year. More choices = more negotiation power for buyers.

And it’s showing — the national average sale price fell to $678,331, a 3.7% drop year-over-year.

For sellers: pricing aggressively and staging properly matters a lot right now. For buyers: this could be your window — but still, don’t expect deals to last forever.

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📍 What’s Happening Locally?
The hardest-hit provinces? Ontario and B.C.

• Toronto: down 27% in sales
• Fraser Valley: down 23%
• Vancouver: down 19%

Meanwhile, Prairie and Atlantic Canada are holding up better, with modest price gains still happening in cities like Winnipeg, Quebec City, and St. John’s.

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🏦 Bank of Canada Holds Steady
The BoC kept rates at 2.75%, marking the first time they haven’t cut since last June. Their message was pretty clear:
👉 “We can’t fix a trade war with interest rates.”

Translation? Don’t expect rate cuts to save the day — at least not until confidence in the economy returns.

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⚠️ What This Means For You
📌 Buyers: You have options right now. More listings, softening prices, and motivated sellers. But don’t wait too long — once the fog of tariffs clears, we could see a quick bounce-back.
📌 Sellers: Be strategic. Price right from day one, prep your home like it’s going on HGTV, and know this isn’t the time to “test the market.”

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That’s it for this week!
As always, if you’re thinking of buying or selling, or just want to talk about what this means for your own plans — I’m just a message away.

Till next week,

📞 604-968-9886
📧 Hansol.estates@gmail.com

Spring is usually a time when Metro Vancouver’s real estate market kicks into high gear, but March 2025 told a different story. According to the latest Greater Vancouver Realtor Board (GVRB) stats, home sales reached their lowest level for a March since 2019—just 2,091 properties were sold, marking a 13.4% drop from last year and sitting nearly 37% below the 10-year average.

📈 More Listings, Cautious Buyers
While sales cooled, listings heated up. New listings surged by 29%, and total active listings climbed to 14,546—the highest level we’ve seen in nearly a decade. The market is now sitting in balanced territory with a sales-to-active listings ratio of 14.9%. This shift gives buyers more choice, but despite lower prices and softened mortgage rates, many remain hesitant to jump in.

💰 Prices Hold Steady
Benchmark prices remained relatively flat across all housing types:

• Detached homes: $2,034,400
• Townhouses: $1,113,100
• Apartments: $767,300

This stability suggests that while activity has slowed, underlying demand is still strong enough to support current values—especially if interest rates continue to trend down.

📉 What’s Ahead for Rates?
RBC Economics is forecasting three interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2025, with another three likely in 2026. Canada is expected to follow suit, with the Bank of Canada projected to cut rates to 2.25% by summer. However, global economic uncertainty—especially rising import costs and shifting trade policy—could make inflation a bit of a wildcard this year.

🆕 Big Changes to REALTOR.ca
Exciting news for buyers and sellers: REALTOR.ca will now display sold listings, including both pending and closed sales. Even better? Sale prices will be published 30 days after closing. This update offers a more transparent view of the market, helping clients make more informed decisions and conversations with your realtor (like me!) more productive.

🏘️ Rental Market Shifts & Policy Changes
In provincial news, B.C. recently reduced the notice landlords must give tenants for personal-use evictions—from four months to three. Tenant advocates have criticized the move, calling it a setback for renters, especially in Vancouver where housing insecurity is already high. However, vacancy rates are climbing, and rents are gradually falling—March marked the 16th straight month of declining average rents in Vancouver.

With major projects like the Sen̓áḵw development in Kitsilano bringing in thousands of new rental units, renters may find more breathing room in the months ahead.

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What This Means for You
Whether you’re buying, selling, or renting, the landscape is shifting. For buyers, there’s more inventory and potential for better deals as rates decline. For sellers, pricing and strategy are more important than ever in a slower market. And for renters, the market may finally be easing up after years of intense pressure.

Have questions about how these changes affect your plans? Let’s chat! I’m here to help you navigate this evolving market with confidence and clarity.

📞 604-968-9886
📧 Hansol.estates@gmail.com